STEM index: un indicatore per investire a Wall Street calcolato nella Main Street

The STEM index is a propriatary index driving a trading system on the SP500. STEM is based on 21 exogenous variables. In backtesting it reported a +5,6% return p.a. with a volatility of 16% over the past 5 years whereas a long only investment on the SP500 should have reported a -1,7% annual return with a 23,6% volatility. [more]

La misteriosa correlazione tra il dollaro e la Borsa

If you think that the Stock Market is closely related to the dollar index, probably are right, but prepare to change your view as the correlation will change from direct to inverse. [more]

"Il toro per le corna / 2"....Good Bye 1999!

The Stock Market is rallying but don't expect the 1999 is back. Prices are close to their fundamentals. The macro environment is poor. Technically speaking volumes are thin. Moreover, positive surprises are fast ending. [more]

“Il toro per le corna”. Ma la Borsa può salire ancora?

Investing in the stock market yields to investors 5-years returns depending from the timing of their investments. Investing when P/E is above 17 could result in poor 5-years performances, unless the real gdp growth will exceed the 3% p.a. Investing in the stock market with the current 14,1 P/E is a risky "border line" strategy. [more]

L'inflazione che verrà

Governments spent money of future generations and that they didn't have. Central Bankers printed a lot of money to refinance them. When the crisis will end, please, expect some inflation. Probably a lot. [more]

NILO: la ripresa italiana non è dietro l'angolo e il Pil fletterà ancora

The NILO neural network forecast that the recovery is far from touching the Italian economy. Moreover, in almost all the OECD economies the recovery of the manufacturing sector is lagging behind the GDP growth, largely inflated by generalized quantitative easing policies. [more]